December 17, 2024
Against rising inventory of preowned private jets, members of the International Aircraft Dealers Association claim ‘robust market confidence’.
Preowned private jet dealers claim “robust market confidence” in their quarterly market update.
International Aircraft Dealers Association members completed 1,559 transactions in 2024, with 562 aircraft deals in Q4.
In a press release, IADA Chairman Phil Winters said, “Our fourth quarter 2024 perception survey indicates that members are entering 2025 with a collective sense of optimism.”
He continued, “Expectations are high that the incoming U.S. Administration and Congress will enact policies favoring business growth and opportunity.”
Winters is Vice President of Aircraft Sales and Charter Management at Greenwich AeroGroup and Western Aircraft.
He added, “This optimism is reflected in the anticipated strong demand for preowned aircraft across all size categories, supported by relatively stable prices, values, and additional inventory.”
IADA Executive Director Louis Seno, Jr. continued, “With post-election clarity in the U.S., market confidence has strengthened, leading to healthy sales projections and optimistic financial forecasts.”
Group members claim over 50% of global preowned business aircraft transactions.
The IADA update comes as Jefferies Research shows increased inventory.
Per Jefferies, “The total number of used business jets for sale in January 2025 was 1,158, up 7% year-over-year, but down 8% sequentially (and down 4% over past 6 months).”
January inventory represented 4.7% of the total fleet.
The 12-month average inventory as a proportion of the fleet was 4.8%.
Used pricing per Jefferies was down 9% year-over-year in January but stable month-over-month.
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Some key metrics the IADA dealers say support their sunny outlook included 130 new agreements in Q4 2024, a 3% year-over-year gain.
New agreements were down sequentially from the trailing three quarters, 144 in Q3, 139 in Q2, and 150 in Q1 of 2024.
Last year, there were 1,176 signed agreements, a 39% increase compared to 846 in 2023.
Q4 closed deals increased from 553 to 562.
For 2024, IADA dealers reported 1,559 closed deals, up 10% from 1,421 deals in 2023.
IADA attributes the increase to “a larger number of reporting dealers.”
The number of deals where the price was lowered went from 76 to 45 year-over-year in Q4.
The number of deals that fell apart increased from 52 to 54 year-over-year in Q4.
IADA states, “While market optimism reigned supreme in the fourth quarter of 2024, supply-side issues continue to constrain preowned transaction volumes and velocities. Supply chains and manpower pools have yet to rebound, with signals that factory deliveries continued to slide into 2025.”
In terms of increased inventory, Holstein Aviation’s Sean Holstein noted, “Although pre-owned aircraft inventory levels have been on the rise, there is certainly pent-up demand that has resulted from the relative pause we saw in the market throughout 2024 leading up to the presidential election.”
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Part of the optimism for the preowned private jet market is based partly on an expected Trump Bump.
CFS Jets David Monacell commented, “Right or wrong, the election results are perceived to be pro-business, which should benefit our industry over the coming years. Market activity has immediately surged in anticipation of a positive growth and tax-friendly environment.
Some dealers believe Donald J. Trump’s election hurt Q4 numbers.
John Swartz of Swartz Aviation said, “Normally we should be in full rush mode for the end of (2024) transactions, we are not seeing that…Most of our clients believe that the tax incentives will be more advantageous if they wait until next year.”
Despite the optimism of the dealers, all things are not equal.
“Older aircraft that are not modernized are having a very tough time,” noted Shawn Dinning of Dallas Jet.
And supply chains remain a significant concern.
“Parts support to keep existing fleets flying has not kept up with the needs of the operators, and that is a problem that needs solving,” said Wetzel Aviation’s Jim Riner.
However, Riner added, “2025 is going to be an excellent year for transaction activity. Clients are engaged in reshaping their flight departments, and our new and pre-owned acquisitions business remains robust.”
IADA says about 80% of members predict that pricing will be stable or decrease slightly over the next six months.
At the same time, 90% expect supply to be stable or slightly increase in the first half of 2025.
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