Jetcraft has boosted its five-year forecast for used private jet sales in another example of the private jet rebound.
Its report covering 2021 through 2025 issued today now projects $57.2 billion in pre-owned aircraft sales on 12,261 transactions through 2025.
Last year’s report predicted $48.8 billion in used aircraft transactions through 2024 on 10,183 transactions.
The change represents a 17% increase in sales and a 20% jump in transactions.
However, the number is still below 2019’s five-year projection of $61 billion.
“The combination of limited commercial airline services, plus expanding offerings within business aviation, presents the sector with a real opportunity to further broaden its customer base and secure long-term prosperity,” said Jahid Fazal-Karim, Owner and Chairman of the Board of Jetcraft.
He added, “Manufacturer backlogs and wait times for new aircraft are rising. This factor, paired with a growing buyer pool, means many will be compelled to turn to pre-owned aircraft to meet their needs.”
According to the report, unlike during the 2004-08 bubble, values are predicted to remain rational. It also noted OEMs are remaining disciplined in terms of churning out new business jets.
“Far from mere market exuberance, transaction value is stabilizing as a result of low inventory and high
demand. Continued market buoyancy and strength are expected to last until at least the end of 2022,
and we predict a return to normal depreciation rates by the end of the forecast period,” Jetcraft predicted.
It continued, “Despite a sharp decline since 2017, values will now start to shift slightly upwards for two reasons: a tighter supply and demand environment helping to sustain prices, and increasing numbers of large jet transactions in the coming years elevating the value average.
Wealth-X and Barton research cited in the report shows only 12% of UHNWs – individuals with a net worth over $30 million – use private aviation. Only 18% of private aviation users own jets, according to the data.
In North America, only 4% of 112,000 UHNWs own private jets. In Europe and Asia, only 2% and 1% of UHNWs own private jets.
Jetcraft believes those numbers will rise.
In October, the International Aircraft Dealers Association said it expects supply will stay far below normal for the foreseeable future.