October 30, 2024
Global Jet Capital cuts unit growth forecast for preowned private jets.
Business jet financier Global Jet Capital scaled back its five-year forecast.
“As expected, we have seen a leveling off from the unprecedented demand that our industry experienced post-pandemic, but looking ahead, we see a steady growth pattern for both new and pre-owned aircraft,” said Andrew Farrant, Chief Marketing Officer.
He added, “Most OEMs have strong backlogs and should see improvements in supply-chain challenges that limited deliveries in 2022 and so far in 2023. Pre-owned transactions continue to return to rates more in line with historical trends and are expected to pick up in 2024 and beyond to reflect increasing demand from new aircraft models.”
Preowned transactions are expected to continue declining in 2023 as they did in 2022.
Unit volume is forecast to decline by 4.8%, while dollar volume is forecast to decline by 8.5%.
Continued market demand, however, should lead to more preowned deliveries over the next five years.
Preowned transactions are expected to increase at a CAGR of 2.5 percent, with dollar volume remaining stable over that time.
However, the forecast for preowned unit sales in 2023 dropped 11.5% to 2,635 from 2,769.
Global Jet Capital also reduced the unit forecast in 2024 by 266 units, 2025 by 261 units and 2026 by 27 units.
| Year | ‘22 Forecast (units) | ’23 Forecast (units) | Change (units) | Change (%) |
| 2022 | 2,829 | 2,769 | (60) | -2.1% |
| 2023 | 2,979 | 2,635 | (344) | -11.5% |
| 2024 | 3,093 | 2,827 | (266) | -8.6% |
| 2025 | 3,207 | 2,946 | (261) | -8.1% |
| 2026 | 3,311 | 3,044 | (267) | -8.1% |
| 2027 | NA | 3,129 | NA | NA |
However, when it comes to money in the bank, Global Jet Capital’s forecast this year projects more money will be spent on used private jets.
The value of preowned private jets this year, while lower than 2022, is still expected to by $2.2 billion ahead of last year’s forecast.
| Year | ’22 Forecast ($ billions) | ‘23 Forecast ($ billions) | Change ($) | Change (%) |
| 2022 | 14.8 | 19.6 | 4.8 | 32.4% |
| 2023 | 15.7 | 17.9 | 2.2 | 14.0% |
| 2024 | 16.6 | 18.7 | 2.1 | 12.7% |
| 2025 | 17.7 | 19.1 | 1.4 | 7.9% |
| 2026 | 18.8 | 19.3 | 0.5 | 2.7% |
| 2027 | NA | 19.5 | NA | NA |
What’s more, the finance company’s forecasters expect the same upward trend for the next five years, compared to their outlook a year ago.
Very Light Jets will be a strong performer over the next five years, increasing from 21.7 percent of the pre-owned market in 2022 to 22.4 percent by 2027.
Their small size and low price make them attractive to entry-level jet buyers, according to Global Jet.
Transactions involving medium jets are also expected to increase over the next five years, rising at a CAGR of 1.8%.
Since that rate will be slower than the overall market, medium jets will shrink as a percentage of the pre-owned market.
Light jet demand is also projected to decline over the next five years.
Heavy jets are expected to increase from 24.3 % of the used market in 2022 to 28.1%by 2027.
During that time, large cabin private jets will grow at an annualized rate of 5.5% compared to 2.5% for the wider preowned market.
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