Argus predicts 4.5% September dip for private jet flight activity

After a 3.9% drop in August private jet flying in North America compared to 2022, Argus TraqPak expects a bigger decline in September

Despite cutting its August forecast twice, Argus TraqPak couldn’t catch North American private jet flight activity declines.

“August activity remained in a similar state but did miss our forecast for the month. Before the month, we had expected activity to show some slight signs of improvement this month, but that did not materialize,” says Argus SVP Travis Kuhn.

At its beginning of the year forecast, Argus had expected flying to be up 0.8% from 2022.

It then cut its month-ahead forecast to a 0.1% decline.

However, its final numbers show a 3.8% drop last month in private jet flight activity compared to the previous year.

Kuhn adds, “From a numbers standpoint- pre-Covid North American business aviation averaged 260,000 flights a month; at its peak from July 2021 through June 2022, it averaged 306,000 flights per month. Over the last 12 months, we’ve averaged 292,000 flights per month.”

Kuhn concludes, “The industry still looks good, but we are off from the post-Covid highs. Going forward, it will be important to keep an eye on the Part 135 industry.”

Looking at September, Argus now expects a 4.5% decline year-over-year, an increase from the 2.4% drop expected at the outset of 2023.

For August, fractional operators continued to counter the trend with a 7.9% gain.

Midsize jets saw a 10.1% increase by Part 91k.

For Part 135, the 6.5% dip in private jet flight activity was driven by a 14.9% drop in light jet flying and an 8.7% decline in turboprops.

Charter operators saw a 3.0% gain in large-cabin jets last month.

Part 91 flying was down 5.3% in August, headlined by a 13.0% drop in midsize jets.