Poor airline service and bonus depreciation should power private jet sales in 2025 despite the ongoing turbulence, experts say.
Private jet executives speaking on a Corporate Jet Investor Town Hall earlier this week say that, despite challenges from tariffs to supply chain issues and consumer uncertainty, private jet sales—new and pre-owned—should remain strong, albeit with a few bumps.
Rollie Vincent, a leading analyst, noted that Q1 pre-owned transactions increased by 35 points year-over-year, with “pretty solid pricing.”
He also pointed to the new private jet deliveries in the first quarter.
The General Aviation Manufacturers Association reported an 11% year-over-year increase.
The value of airplane deliveries through the first quarter of 2025 was $5.04 billion, an increase of 25.7% compared to 2024.
It’s not smooth flying.
Vincent says Q2 is a “completely different picture.”
Vincent told webinar listeners, “Tariffs and the wild nature of the announcements, whether it’s one day or the next, it may be a completely different picture. It’s causing businesspeople to hold back on the throttle…Q2 is pretty much a self-inflicted wound.”
Vincent noted that his quarterly survey’s optimism index had given back its entire Q4 28-point gain.
The return of full bonus depreciation, included in the current Republican-led tax reform, will provide a significant tailwind, Vincent said.
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For the moment, panelists and listeners noted that tariffs are already affecting jet owners’ wallets in terms of maintenance costs.
One listener posted in the comments section that a client was recently hit with a $285,000 tariff for new engine parts for his Dassault Falcon 2000X that were shipped from outside the U.S.
Avpro’s Chris Ellis said a customer with a Gulfstream G450 was billed an $850,000 tariff to cover parts imported for an overhaul.
Another unexpected cost for aircraft owners is maintenance that needs to be performed while the airplane is on the market for sale.
Wes Romaine, an appraiser, said the average time on market for a Citation CJ3+ has increased to 170 days currently, from an average of 80 days with a ‘for sale’ sign a year ago.
He said the longer time on market is putting downward pressure on pricing despite “good demand.”
“Buyers are done overpaying,” Romaine says.
He adds, “buyers and sellers have smartened up. It’s caused everyone to come to the table with more rational views.”
However, the conversation once again came back to maintenance.
“Maintenance is going to be a huge driver,” he said in terms of getting deals done in the traditional Q4 frenzy.
Vincent added that the “chronic issue” continues to be labor shortages, which impact scheduled maintenance slots despite “a lot of investment in that space.”
Mesinger Jets Jay Mesinger, who moderated the panel, quipped, “Sitting on the fence seems to be a safe place to be right now unless you have a real motivation to jump in right now.”
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PNC Bank SVP Keith Hayes added, “Post-COVID, the word that came up on every panel was uncertainty. Last year, before the election, what word came up on every panel? The word was uncertainty. Then, after the election, the word uncertainty disappeared. Now, all of a sudden, the word is uncertainty, and it’s in bold and all caps. ”
Hayes said his business is still robust, but noted, “We are having clients now start to slow down, tap the brakes.”
He said clients are concerned about how tariffs will impact their bottom line as well as aircraft values, particularly for airplanes that need to be imported to the U.S.
At the same time, Hayes told the audience that if the already limited inventory of newer pre-owned jets becomes even smaller due to tariffs, “one would say there’s a good chance values (for U.S.-based jets) may increase.”
For banks, Hayes says their number one competitor remains cash.
He also said banks will be reticent to finance the cost of tariffs.
Ellis, who described his business as “on the tip of the spear,” described himself as “much more bullish” than other panelists.
Ellis says his outlook comes from nearly 40 years of experience and “feeling significant demand.”
We also asked ChatGPT to listen to the Town Hall and assess the confidence level of the panelists regarding their expectations for private jet sales through the end of the year.
It rated the confidence level as 7 out of 10, with 10 being the highest confidence level.
Here’s why:
Stabilizing, not declining: Panelists acknowledged that demand has cooled from its post-pandemic highs. They emphasized that the market remains healthy and is not in decline.
Increased inventory is viewed positively: More available aircraft are seen as restoring balance, rather than a warning sign.
Realistic pricing trends: While prices have plateaued, this is seen as a healthy correction rather than a crash.
New buyer interest: Continued entry of younger and more tech-savvy buyers suggests long-term viability.
Interest rates and financing pressure: There was some caution about rising borrowing costs and tighter lending standards.
Geopolitical and regulatory challenges: These factors are creating friction in some international markets, but aren’t viewed as deal-breakers.
ChatGPT told us, “In short, they’re realistic but confident — aware of headwinds, but not signaling serious concern. A 7 reflects measured optimism with eyes open.”
One element that may push private jet sales is that panelists agree there is no realistic Plan B.
Vincent noted, “The air traffic control nightmares suggest commercial airline services are not going to be very dependable.”
Ellis added, “Plan B is so bad, flying commercial, (customers) are just going to power through it. We’re feeling super optimistic.”
For his part, Mesinger added, “Airline industry disruptions have always served (private aviation) well.”
Research with subscribers of Private Jet Card Comparisons backs up that contention.
Fifty-four percent of those considering private aviation cited poor airline and airport experiences as a primary factor driving their decision.
Ellis said he will remain confident “as long as users are making money.”
That’s probably true, too.
According to the same survey, 95% of Private Jet Card Comparisons subscribers who began flying privately during or after the Covid pandemic are continuing to do so.
According to the latest WingX data, U.S. domestic private jet segments accelerated from 3.4% year-over-year growth before the tariffs to 4.1% year-over-year gains since.
READ: 40 Steps To Buy A Private Jet
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