S&P continued its negative outlook on ‘risk that the company might not be able to restore credit ratios consistent’ with its current rating.
Private jet flight provider Vista Global Holding Ltd.’s operating performance is broadly in line with expectations, according to the latest report from bond rating agency S&P Global.
Still, high leverage and elevated refinancing risk continue to define its credit profile, according to the analysis.
The rating agency affirmed Vista Global’s issuer credit rating at B+ with a negative outlook.
S&P says Vista maintains a “strong” position in a “high risk” industry.
S&P wrote, “Operating performance was on track with our previous forecasts in fiscal 2025, although debt levels were somewhat higher–including the company’s convertible preferred equity, which we view as debt under our criteria–leading to weaker credit metrics than we expected.”
It continued, “We forecast that Vista Global will increase its EBITDA further in 2026 and 2027, which should improve credit metrics,” adding, “We see a risk that the company might not be able to restore credit ratios consistent with a B+ rating.”
S&P “affirmed our long-term issuer credit rating on Vista Global at B+.”
Vista Global’s recently upsized $908 million term loan was rated BB-, and its $2 billion senior unsecured notes at B.
S&P said, “The negative outlook indicates that we could lower the rating over the next 12 months if Vista Global is unable to achieve a weighted-average free funds from operations to debt ratio higher than 10% in 2026 and 2027, if its free operating cash flow after lease payments remains negative, or if liquidity weakens materially.”
Assumptions are based on the company’s ability to “successfully refinance its $500 million senior unsecured notes maturing in May 2027 in a timely manner.”
The last public report from S&P came in April 2025 after Vista closed $1.3 billion in new funding.
In February, rival rating agency KBRA said it would discontinue its public reports on the parent of VistaJet and XO.
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Per S&P, Vista Global had 206 aircraft at the end of 2025, down from 266 at the end of 2023.
As reported, Vista has been disposing of older aircraft, including its light jet fleet and Citation X super-midsize jets.
It also sold its interest in Talon Air in January.
Earlier this week, Vista said it would upgrade all 18 of its Bombardier Global 7500s to the Global 8000 platform by year’s end.
In February, it placed a firm order for 40 Challenger 3500s with options for 120 more.
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2025 Vista Global revenue and other income totaled $2.9 billion, and its adjusted EBITDA per S&P was about $770 million.
Adjusted revenue is expected to grow by approximately 6% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.
S&P reports Vista Global’s actual growth of 5.3% in 2025.
S&P forecasts adjusted EBITDA margins to be 26% in 2026 and 2027.
Its adjusted margin was 26.3% in 2025.
Capital expenditure, per S&P, is anticipated to increase to around $300 million in 2026 and around $270 million in 2027.
That comes from its February order with Bombardier for 40 Challenger 3500s with options for 120 more.
S&P expects working capital outflows of around $70 million in 2026.
That’s down from $170 million in 2025.
Last year’s numbers “related to the unwinding of deferred revenue balances as well as a further reduction in trade payables and a buildup of vendor prepayments.”
S&P expects “interest paid to reduce to about $290 million in 2026 and $280 million in 2027 following refinancing initiatives.”
Based on its assumptions, S&P forecasts free funds from operations to debt of about 10% in 2026 and about 11% in 2027 after about 8.3% in 2025.
Free operating cash flow after lease payments is expected to be $120 million in 2026, rising to $240 million in 2027.
S&P says it was negative $83 million in 2025.
Free funds from operations to cash interest coverage is expected to be 2.7x in 2026 and 3.0x in 2027.
It was 2.2x in 2025, per S&P.
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The S&P report also covered EBITDA performance in 2024 and 2025.
S&P analysts wrote:
‘While Vista Global’s operating performance met our prior expectations in fiscal 2025, credit ratios were weaker than we anticipated due to increased debt levels. This includes the $600 million convertible preferred equity issuance that we continue to treat as debt under our criteria. The company continued to expand its revenue in 2025 (by about 5%) supported by strong market growth (also up 5%, measured by millions of hours flown in 2025) including increased demand from ultra-high-net-worth individuals. The company’s strategy to grow its higher-margin Program segment successfully drove a 16% increase in Program live flight hours. As such, live flight hours in the company’s On Fleet On Demand segment declined due to this deliberate customer switching strategy but also suffered further from crew and parts shortages toward the end of the year, which increased maintenance downtimes, and further constrained revenue growth. Nevertheless, Vista Global’s S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA increased to about $770 million in 2025, a significant rise from $714 million in 2024, and broadly in line with our previous expectations. We note that we expense company reported “nonrecurring costs” and variable lease payments in our calculation of adjusted EBITDA. Thanks to Vista Global’s strong EBITDA growth, the company’s credit metrics improved but not by as much as we expected: FFO to debt was 8.3% as of fiscal 2025 and lower than our previous expectations of about 10%.’
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S&P also provided a financial outlook for Vista Global through 2027.
Looking ahead S&P said:
‘We forecast a further improvement in Vista Global’s credit metrics over the next 12 months but note uncertainty surrounding the trajectory. We forecast that Vista Global’s adjusted EBITDA will increase to between $790 million-$810 million in 2026 and $830 million-$850 million in 2027. We assume that this increase will be supported by a strong uptick in subscription program revenue (about 10%-12%), as customers are encouraged to switch to Vista Global’s contracted core higher margin Program segment, and on-fleet, on-demand revenue declines as a result. We understand that the company has taken measures to deal with the pilots and parts shortages that impeded the firm’s financial results in 2025, including significant recruitment drives and securing agreements with original equipment manufacturers to enhance cost predictability and secure priority access to spare parts. With increased debt issuance to finance a larger fleet, as Vista Global continues to expand its Challenger fleet to capture Program segment demand, we forecast adjusted FFO to debt will increase to 10%-11% in 2026 and 2027. We see a risk for underperformance in 2026 due to cost inflation and subscription sales risks, which could impact FFO and FOCF generation.’
S&P doesn’t see an adverse impact from the Iran War for Vista Global.
Last year, it launched domestic operations in Saudi Arabia.
The company only has 8% exposure to the region.
It noted that Vista contracts enable it to adjust fuel surcharges as a pass-through to customers.
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The S&P report also addressed Vista’s various fleet moves over the past two years.
S&P said:
‘We expect Vista Global to prioritize debt-funded fleet expansion. To expand their Challenger 3500 Fleet and capture more demand from the Program segment, we expect Vista Global to issue debt incrementally each year. This strategy aims to capitalize on the expected growth in the private aviation sector, in contrast to Vista Global’s recent disposal of its non-core assets, which saw its overall fleet size drop from 266 in 2023 to 206 in 2025, including the sale of Red Wing Aviation, which also aimed to increase the proportion of demand serviced through its core Program segment. We expect Vista Global to add four new aircraft each year on average, with the option of increasing direct orders further down the line. With each Challenger 3500 aircraft assumed to have strong utilization rates, we expect this to boost the company’s yields in the medium term and contribute to EBITDA and cash flow generation, which should reduce (or at least be neutral to) net leverage on a pro forma basis.’
Founder Thomas Flohr continues as majority owner. Minority ordinary shareholder Rhone Capital was joined last year by private equity firm RRJ Capital as a minority preferred shareholder.
Vista officials have yet to comment on a 9fin report from last week.
The report said the company is planning an IPO later this year.
READ: Full financial analysis from S&P Global on Vista Global Holding
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