November 21, 2024
Aircraft financing provider Global Jet Capital offers a bullish outlook for the sale of both new and pre-owned private jets between now and 2025. The forecast comes on the heels of fleet operators from NetJets to Wheels Up reporting record demand and jet card providers saying summer travel could be as much as 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Global Jet Capital forecasts $162.1 billion in total transaction volume of new and pre-owned private jets between 2021 and 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4%.
According to the report, “Driven by charter and fractional usage in the United States, flight activity continues to improve and has nearly recovered to 2019 levels despite the fact that large corporate operators are still not fully up and running – mirroring their current office versus work from home environments.”
At this stage, the industry is poised to fully recover, and possibly expand beyond historical usage, as international and corporate travel resume throughout 2021 and into 2022. That increased usage has led to improved demand from buyers. In Q4 2020, there were over 1,200 new and pre-owned transactions valued at $10.4 billion, the largest quarter in at least five years.
-Global Jet Capital
It adds, “Much of the growth in charter and fractional usage is being driven by new entrants to the market looking to avoid crowded airports and aircraft in the midst of a pandemic. History tells us that while some of these users will revert back to commercial service when the pandemic is over, many will become regular users of business aviation, and some will eventually become owners and operators.”
NetJets recently said it would take delivery of over 50 new private jets this year. In addition, a January survey of new private jet users by Private Jet Card Comparisons found 96% expect to continue flying privately post-pandemic, including 41% who plan to do so regularly.
In its forecast, Global Jet predicts, “At this stage, the industry is poised to fully recover, and possibly expand beyond historical usage, as international and corporate travel resume throughout 2021 and into 2022. That increased usage has led to improved demand from buyers. In Q4 2020, there were over 1,200 new and pre-owned transactions valued at $10.4 billion, the largest quarter in at least five years.”
In the near term, private jets’ financial company unit transactions to increase from 3,136 in 2020 to 3,308 this year and 3,371 by 2021. Used private jet sales actually increased last year, from 2,334 units in 2019 to 2,534. At the same time, delivery of new private jets plummeted to 602 units from 794.
Looking ahead, Global Jet expects 2,959 pre-owned private jet sales in 2025, with new private jet deliveries inching towards 2019 levels but falling short with 794 units. Either way, new private jet deliveries are still below the record of 1,317 units in 2008, according to data from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association.
In terms of revenues, Global Jet projects sales volume for pre-owned business jets to increase from $11.3 billion in 2020 to $13.5 billion this year and $16.2 billion by 2025. For new private jets, the forecast expects revenues to increase from $14.1 billion in 2020 to $16.1 billion this year and $20 billion in 2025.
In terms of new private jet production by the number of units, Global Jet Capital predicts:
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
| VLJs | 68 | 87 | 119 | 133 | 167 | 129 | 153 | 154 | 153 | 158 | 156 |
| Light | 182 | 158 | 128 | 159 | 187 | 152 | 165 | 159 | 159 | 180 | 182 |
| Medium | 169 | 168 | 174 | 171 | 202 | 128 | 149 | 158 | 162 | 185 | 185 |
| Heavy | 296 | 236 | 205 | 194 | 238 | 193 | 206 | 214 | 216 | 255 | 261 |
| Total | 715 | 649 | 626 | 657 | 794 | 602 | 673 | 685 | 690 | 778 | 784 |
In terms of pre-owned private jet sales by the number of units, Global Jet Capital predicts:
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
| VLJ | 452 | 444 | 449 | 438 | 450 | 522 | 518 | 532 | 559 | 586 | 614 |
| Light | 810 | 797 | 836 | 856 | 764 | 801 | 848 | 856 | 875 | 882 | 881 |
| Medium | 550 | 503 | 575 | 591 | 541 | 583 | 604 | 609 | 622 | 629 | 632 |
| Heavy | 503 | 520 | 624 | 682 | 579 | 625 | 665 | 689 | 733 | 779 | 832 |
| Total | 2,315 | 2,264 | 2,484 | 2,567 | 2,334 | 2,531 | 2,635 | 2,686 | 2,789 | 2,876 | 2,959 |
In a trend that benefits manufacturers, Global Jet says many new jet customers are “habitual pre-owned aircraft buyers” who can’t find quality inventory in the pre-owned market.
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