Argus predicts 2.3% January gain in private jet flight activity

After a 3.8% dip in private jet flight activity during the second half of 2022, Argus TraqPak expects North American flying to increase by 2.3% this month

Argus TraqPak’s December report and January forecast will again create some discussion regarding how full the glass is in private aviation.

Last month, global flight activity recorded an activity decrease of 5% from December 2021, while monthly activity decreased by 1.8% from November 2022.

The North American market reported a 6.2% yearly decrease in month-over-month activity from December 2021 but remained up 12.7% from December 2019.

The results by operational category were all negative for the month, with Part 91 activity recording the largest decrease, finishing down 7.6% from December 2021, while Part 135 activity was down 6.4% for the month.

December 2022 vs. December 2021 Private Jet Flight Activity

Both segments reported double-digit declines in midsize cabin activity compared to December 2021.

Fractional activity remains consistent from a year ago after reporting a 1.3% decrease.

The aircraft categories were all negative, with midsize aircraft posting the most significant monthly decrease in activity again, down 9.1% from December 2021.

Large cabin activity followed with a decline of 5.7%, while the small cabin market posted an activity decline of 5.5%.

Turboprops rounded out the segments with a decline of 3.7%.

Light jet fractional was the only segment to record a year-over-year increase, up 4.2% from December 2021.

Across the pond, the European business aviation market remained down, finishing off 15.8% from December 2021.

Argus analysts estimate a 2.3% increase in overall North American flight activity year-over-year in January 2023. European activity is estimated to decrease by 14.9% year-over-year.

“The December traffic report highlights the overall cooling within private aviation over the last six months. We did notice a monthly increase in charter activity, which we would expect to see for the holidays. Still, the decline in midsize cabin activity could be an early indicator that some of the new flyers in the post-pandemic world are traveling less as we close out 2022,” Argus Senior Vice President Travis Kuhn tells us.

Kuhn continues, “Even though the industry declined 3.8% in the second half of 2022, activity for the year remained up 5% from 2021 and 15.5% from 2019.”