Private Jets are flying high, but lingering concerns remain

Worldwide private jet departures are on track to beat 2022’s record, and deliveries of new private jets will reach their highest mark since 2009, according to a pair of surveys presented earlier this week in Las Vegas.

The research was presented at the National Business Aviation Association’s annual convention, BACE.

The JetNet WingX data showed that, through the end of September, worldwide private jet departures were 2% higher than in 2022, the record.

That’s 16% more than 2021, which set a record, and 33% higher than pre-COVID-19 2019.

At the same time, JetNet IQ, a quarterly survey of private jet owners and operators, estimated that 820 new private jets would be delivered in 2025.

That bests the 809 deliveries in 2019.

Moreover, it is the most since 2009, when there were 874 deliveries.

That was the beginning of what many refer to as private aviation’s lost decade.

Back then, the 887 deliveries in 2006 were only topped by the 1,137 new jets churned out in 2007 and the record 1,317 at the edge of the Great Recession.

READ: Private Jet Deliveries By Year: 2000 through 2024

At the end of the second quarter this year, IQ reported a $55.5 billion backlog of new private jet orders, equivalent to around two years of production.

In 2019, before Covid, the backlog stood at $38.8 billion, the highest since 2014.

There looks to be plenty of tailwinds.

Over 90% of respondents agreed with the statement that “without business aviation, my company would be less successful and less profitable.”

Over seven in 10 say the return of 100% bonus depreciation in the U.S. will increase the likelihood of purchasing a new aircraft in the next 12 months.

Half Full or Half Empty?

While the industry looks set for continued gains, those who wonder whether it is susceptible to another 2009-like shock needn’t look far.

Yes, optimists outranked pessimists by 23.5% in Q3 of the IQ survey.

However, in Q2, tariff fears left pessimists 17.5% ahead of the optimists.

Indeed, over the last 10 quarters, respondents have alternated between optimism and pessimism seven times.

What’s more, 55% of the same IQ respondents who are excited about bonus depreciation said uncertainty about the impact of tariffs will delay aircraft purchase plans in the next year.

Still, the overall future looks bright, if one wants to put stock in forecasts.

The JetNet IQ report estimates that 9,700 new jets, valued at $335 billion, will be delivered through 2034.

Of course, even if the projections hold, respondents highlighted several challenges that will make keeping those private jets in the air more difficult.

Top concerns include supply chain recovery and the capacity to repair those jets.

Then there’s the matter of attracting and training the folks who turn the wrenches.

And don’t forget the lack of airport facilities and air traffic control capacity.

READ: How a $1.1 billion lawsuit provides an insider look at supply chain woes

Bottom Line?

So is the glass half full or half empty?

Maybe a stiff drink is more suitable.